A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
